I hope the Cardinals understand that the problem wasn’t just one year. Yes, of course, last year was a 71-91 disaster. But it’s been most of the past nine years — five total playoff wins (games, not series!) ... and four years they didn’t even make the playoffs to begin with.
As I’ve shouted from these pages before, as have other writers on our staff, the esteemed Cardinals are no longer on the forefront. They can still put together winning seasons, sure — but the word “winning” has changed its meaning around here. A winning Cardinals team used to make it to, at least, the National League Championship Series. Now, a winning team is one that snatches one of the six playoff spots, regardless of postseason results.
This, thus, is a pivotal year for them to prove they’ve still “got it.” And ownership is putting all its eggs in the same basket.
There needs to be an urgency for a restoration. Cardinals employees — ownership to executives to coaches to players — were all confidently talking the talk at Winter Warm-up. But it’s not certain the Cardinals can walk the walk once 2024 actually warms up. There are plenty of good players on the roster, yes. But this doesn’t look like a pennant-winning team. And with the Cubs on the rebound — and perhaps with still a couple of signings to go — one wonders if the Cardinals are even a division-winning team?
Asked about winning in the postseason this season, Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. said Monday, “We’re trying to put the best team that we can on the field — and our view is that if we do a good enough job, we’ll be in that position. So that’s obviously our goal. We’ve always said we want to continue to have — year in, year out — strong, competitive teams that have a chance to get into the playoffs and do good things in the playoffs. So we’re sticking to that.”
Of course, you can credit John Mozeliak, the president of baseball operations, for his speedy signings of starting pitchers. I don’t think all of St. Louis realizes how fantastic Sonny Gray is at pitching baseballs. He finished second in American League Cy Young voting last year. The Cardinals got the second-best pitcher in the entire American League! And Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn will eat innings — but allow runs along the way.
Gibson’s ERA in the past five seasons is 4.63 with an ERA+ of 92, thus below league average of 100. Lynn was third in the Cy Young voting in 2021 but the past two seasons had a 5.04 ERA with an ERA+ of 84.
For the Cardinals staff to succeed this year, here’s thinking at least three Nos. 2-5 starters must have better seasons than they had last season. How often do three Nos. 2-5 pitchers on a staff have improved seasons? And as Steven Matz pointed out Monday, “I’m the youngest one on the staff now — and I’m going to be 33 in May.”
On Jan. 15, both Lynn and manager Oli Marmol seemed confident they figured out Lynn’s issues from last season. Let’s reassess on, say, May 15. And Matz indeed pitched quite well in his second starter stint last season. But that was a stint. Seven starts. Four against sub-.500 teams. Let’s reassess after, at least, seven starts in 2024.
Incidentally, the reason the Cardinals had to spend money on three free-agent starters was because they hadn’t developed a starter since Bob Forsch.
I kid, but it’s been a while, right? Asked about drafting and developing pitchers, DeWitt Jr. said, “We’ve been performance-oriented, so pitchers who have performed (in college) we’re more apt to draft than those who have maybe more physical tools in there. Maybe there’s a balance there. Our goal is to obviously develop pitchers. That’s where our need has been. We’ve done well on the position-player side, not so much on pitching.
“Good news is that when we got in a position where we needed to make some changes, we got some really good pitching prospects (at the trade deadline). So the more good prospects you have on the pitching front, the better. As you saw, we went outside the organization to get the three pitchers that we got (in free agency). And we’ll try and do a better job on drafting.”
Perhaps the most encouraging words from DeWitt’s news conference were about Chaim Bloom. The Cardinals chairman shared that when the former Red Sox executive was fired, “I immediately thought: We could probably use someone like that (to be part of the front office). Someone who’s been with a small market, big market, very smart guy to kind of help see what’s going on with our organization. And interestingly, ‘Mo’ thought the same thing. He called me two days later, and I said, ‘John, it’s interesting because I had the same thought.’ We were on the same page there, which is great.
“I think he can be very helpful. I mean, our team has been together a long time, and you never know what else is out there that maybe our guys have not been in touch with. The world changes — it’s helpful to get the perspective or somebody who’s done it with different organizations.”
So both DeWitt and Mozeliak were humble enough to admit that the front office could benefit from fresh eyes. Bloom, of course, is aptly named. The wilting Cardinals need to bloom again. Maybe Chaim can help. But so many people must have a better 2024, from Mozeliak and Marmol to Miles Mikolas and Matz. Really, everyone can be better.
The Cardinals think they’re still the mighty Cardinals.
But if “one year” becomes two, that really means nine years of underachievement — from what should be the St. Louis standard — becomes a decade.
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